January 28th, 2011
President Obama,
It has recently occurred to me that I could potentially now – or in the not too distant future - owe you a compliment of “job well done.” Upon your recent well-publicized visits to many major manufacturers throughout the nation, did you start to play ‘hardball’ with those corporate entities? Meaning, did you tell them to start hiring workers or they would see a decrease in Federal contracts being let to them or other unseemly repercussions of not hiring more employees? Did you per chance tell them to relay such a sentiment to their suppliers as well? In return, did you possibly offer these corporate entities less Federal government ‘red tape’/restrictions/regulations as a possible reward for hiring employees? Because, lets face it, such a theme of less corporate regulation has not appeared as typically common to others of your political party affiliation. Anyway, if so, I would be proud to congratulate you. Because clearly such a confrontation is long overdue and we can be sure that your last few predecessors had no inclination to do such a thing for the populace (or at a minimum were unnoticeably unsuccessful if they had).
Without a doubt, we are all aware that the Dow Jones index is climbing. We are all aware that American corporate productivity is at an all-time high. We are all also aware that these positive indicators are a likely result of many employers requiring their workers to do the job and work-hours of three workers so that the employers do not have to hire workers and pay more benefits (such as the hypothetical additional employee’s healthcare). I know this mentality of the employers exists and I know this for a fact because I have a friend that has worked the assembly line of a major employer for the last five months without any days off, seven days a week (with the exception of Christmas and New Year’s Day) – because his employer refuses to hire more workers. And if my friend were to complain about such work demands or refuse any overtime hours, surely he would be fired and replaced with another unemployed citizen desperate for a job.
If my speculations above are correct, well…: “good job, Mr. President Obama.” I am not a prima-donna who refuses to give credit where credit is due. However, you could let us know that you were playing ‘hardball’ with them, we wouldn’t mind. On the other hand, if my conjectures above are not possibly close to being accurate, well please disregard this note/blog, if you would be so kind.
Adam Trotter / AVT
PS. Since I am not sure either way, I suppose time will tell if you did play ‘hardball’ with those employers and whether it works.
Aug 28th, 2012. It appears that to date, no one gets a 'job well done' concerning any the creation of any jobs because it doesn't really appear that any jobs have been created anywhere over the last several years. The lack of jobs seems as bad now as it has ever been.
Showing posts with label True Number of Uemployed in the United States. Show all posts
Showing posts with label True Number of Uemployed in the United States. Show all posts
Friday, January 28, 2011
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Report the True Unemployment Numbers or Nothing At All
January 18th, 2010
I have long wondered why the true unemployment numbers are not estimated and reported by any mainstream news source in the United States; neither the thousands of government bureaucrats nor any private media news sources seem interested in the actual amount of people that are currently unemployed.
In case you don’t know what I mean when speaking of the true unemployment numbers, when one receives unemployment compensation or applies for such anyhow, they are then counted as unemployed (unemployed illegal immigrants or employed undocumented workers never count as unemployed – btw, of course). However, if one does not become reemployed by the time any unemployment insurance compensation expires – typically six months or so, they are no longer counted as unemployed regardless if they remain unemployed albeit without any unemployment insurance benefits. After six months of not returning to the workforce, those workers are considered as people who are not interested in rejoining the workforce, or as the government labels them, “discouraged workers.”
Ok, so…, I can understand why the system of counting for the unemployment index was originally modified to count in this fashion [that is, only counting those that are currently receiving unemployment insurance benefits as being unemployed]. As I recall it was during the early 1980’s that President Reagan had the method of counting the unemployed changed to its current method. But back in 1980, much of the inflation and economic troubles appeared to be a likely result of perception and maybe not really based upon any concrete facts – although, arguably, it was that point in time when the dollar first came to be decimated in value, as it was during President Nixon’s administration less than ten years prior to 1980 had allowed the dollar to be traded under a variable exchange rate and therefore the dollar to no longer had a rigid exchange rate (and the people of the nation have paid for the successes and failures of the financial sectors ever since to our own detriment, no doubt).
Anyway, so we can see that the true number of unemployed is likely to be significantly larger than the reported numbers concerning unemployed U.S. workers. My question is then: if the mainstream media news sources are to report anything about the number of unemployed workers, why not try to gauge the real number of the unemployed portion of the workforce? Or, if they consider the current economic recession to be a result of nothing but perception and therefore don’t want to report anything negative, maybe, don’t bother to report anything at all concerning the U.S. unemployment numbers.
Please don’t to continue to feed us lies and bullshit over the airwaves concerning the number of people unemployed in the United States when such is clearly not true. The American people can handle the truth. When we can’t handle the truth, well…...
AVT
I have long wondered why the true unemployment numbers are not estimated and reported by any mainstream news source in the United States; neither the thousands of government bureaucrats nor any private media news sources seem interested in the actual amount of people that are currently unemployed.
In case you don’t know what I mean when speaking of the true unemployment numbers, when one receives unemployment compensation or applies for such anyhow, they are then counted as unemployed (unemployed illegal immigrants or employed undocumented workers never count as unemployed – btw, of course). However, if one does not become reemployed by the time any unemployment insurance compensation expires – typically six months or so, they are no longer counted as unemployed regardless if they remain unemployed albeit without any unemployment insurance benefits. After six months of not returning to the workforce, those workers are considered as people who are not interested in rejoining the workforce, or as the government labels them, “discouraged workers.”
Ok, so…, I can understand why the system of counting for the unemployment index was originally modified to count in this fashion [that is, only counting those that are currently receiving unemployment insurance benefits as being unemployed]. As I recall it was during the early 1980’s that President Reagan had the method of counting the unemployed changed to its current method. But back in 1980, much of the inflation and economic troubles appeared to be a likely result of perception and maybe not really based upon any concrete facts – although, arguably, it was that point in time when the dollar first came to be decimated in value, as it was during President Nixon’s administration less than ten years prior to 1980 had allowed the dollar to be traded under a variable exchange rate and therefore the dollar to no longer had a rigid exchange rate (and the people of the nation have paid for the successes and failures of the financial sectors ever since to our own detriment, no doubt).
Anyway, so we can see that the true number of unemployed is likely to be significantly larger than the reported numbers concerning unemployed U.S. workers. My question is then: if the mainstream media news sources are to report anything about the number of unemployed workers, why not try to gauge the real number of the unemployed portion of the workforce? Or, if they consider the current economic recession to be a result of nothing but perception and therefore don’t want to report anything negative, maybe, don’t bother to report anything at all concerning the U.S. unemployment numbers.
Please don’t to continue to feed us lies and bullshit over the airwaves concerning the number of people unemployed in the United States when such is clearly not true. The American people can handle the truth. When we can’t handle the truth, well…...
AVT
Sunday, January 17, 2010
33% True Unemployment Percentage in the U.S.? Estimating the True Current Unemployment Numbers in the United States.
January 17th, 2010
The possible true percentage of unemployed workers in the United States is roughly estimated by the calculations below. As the calculations show, the true possible unemployment percentages could range anywhere from twenty to fifty percent (20% to 50%). As shown in the calculations and supported by extraneous indicators not addressed herein, I would surmise the likely true percentage of unemployed U.S. workers to be approximately thirty-three percent (33%).
As a rough estimate of the current amount of unemployed U.S. workers:
Assumptions:
- Size of American legal workforce = 154, 287,000 http://www.bls.gov/fls/flscomparelf/labor_force.htm “not counting discouraged, institutionalized (students, convicts), or marginal workers”
- Initially ten percent (10%) unemployment remaining constant for two (2) years.
- Percentage falling off unemployment statistics each month and therefore no longer considered to be unemployed essentially equals number becoming unemployed each month, hence a constant 10% unemployed for the time period of the last two years.
- Average length of unemployment insurance benefits / length of time a worker is counted as being unemployed without reentering the workforce = six (6) months.
- No consideration is given for any worker that may file for unemployment more than once over the two year period calculated.
Number of Unemployed:
154, 287,000 x 0.10 = 15,428,700 = 10% = Number unemployed any given month and initial and final amount as well for the two year period.
Plus Those Newly Unemployed any Given Month:
15,428,700 / 6 = 2,571,450 = Number becoming unemployed any given month for the period which also equals the same amount that fall off unemployment and are therefore no longer counted as unemployed.
Plus Those No Longer Considered as Unemployed any Given Month:
15,428,700 / 6 = 2,571,450 = Number no longer considered as unemployed any given month regardless if they dont return to an employed status.
Say, 50% return to work during unemployment immediately after unemployment benefits end
2,571,450 x 0.50 = 1,285,725 actually return to work of those newly not being counted as unemployed
Say 20 % return to work (which is probably the most realistic number given the industries that have laid-off workers)
2,571,450 x 0.20 = 514,290
Say 80 % return to work (which is unlikely)
2,571,450 x 0.80 = 2,057,160
Equals Total Number Unemployed:
Therefore, total number unemployed for the last two years:
(workforce x 0.10) + (24 months x (newly unemployed/month – number returning to work)) =
If 50% have returned to work after falling off unemployment the total number unemployed:
(154,287,000 x 0.10) + (24 x (2,571,450 – 1,285,725)) = 46,286,100 unemployed.
= 30% unemployed.
If 20% have returned to work after falling off unemployment the total number unemployed:
(154,287,000 x 0.10) + (24 x (2,571,450 – 514,290)) = 64,800,540 unemployed.
= 42% unemployed.
If 80% have returned to work after falling off unemployment the total number unemployed:
(154,287,000 x 0.10) + (24 x (2,571,450 – 2,057,160)) = 27,771,660 unemployed.
= 18% unemployed.
However, If 0.0% have returned to work after falling off unemployment or all become underemployed and could still be counted as unemployed, the total number unemployed:
(154,287,000 x 0.10) + (24 x (2,571,450 – 0)) = 77,143,500 unemployed.
= 50% unemployed.
In case you don’t know what I mean when speaking of the true unemployment numbers, when one receives unemployment compensation or applies for such anyhow, they are then counted as unemployed (unemployed illegal immigrants or employed undocumented workers never count as unemployed – btw, of course). However, if one does not become reemployed by the time any unemployment insurance compensation expires – typically six months or so, they are no longer counted as unemployed regardless if they remain unemployed albeit without any unemployment insurance benefits. After six months of not returning to the workforce, those workers are considered as people who are not interested in rejoining the workforce, or as the government labels them, “discouraged workers.”
Anyway, so we can see that the true number of unemployed is likely to be significantly larger than the reported numbers concerning unemployed U.S. workers.
AVT
The possible true percentage of unemployed workers in the United States is roughly estimated by the calculations below. As the calculations show, the true possible unemployment percentages could range anywhere from twenty to fifty percent (20% to 50%). As shown in the calculations and supported by extraneous indicators not addressed herein, I would surmise the likely true percentage of unemployed U.S. workers to be approximately thirty-three percent (33%).
As a rough estimate of the current amount of unemployed U.S. workers:
Assumptions:
- Size of American legal workforce = 154, 287,000 http://www.bls.gov/fls/flscomparelf/labor_force.htm “not counting discouraged, institutionalized (students, convicts), or marginal workers”
- Initially ten percent (10%) unemployment remaining constant for two (2) years.
- Percentage falling off unemployment statistics each month and therefore no longer considered to be unemployed essentially equals number becoming unemployed each month, hence a constant 10% unemployed for the time period of the last two years.
- Average length of unemployment insurance benefits / length of time a worker is counted as being unemployed without reentering the workforce = six (6) months.
- No consideration is given for any worker that may file for unemployment more than once over the two year period calculated.
Number of Unemployed:
154, 287,000 x 0.10 = 15,428,700 = 10% = Number unemployed any given month and initial and final amount as well for the two year period.
Plus Those Newly Unemployed any Given Month:
15,428,700 / 6 = 2,571,450 = Number becoming unemployed any given month for the period which also equals the same amount that fall off unemployment and are therefore no longer counted as unemployed.
Plus Those No Longer Considered as Unemployed any Given Month:
15,428,700 / 6 = 2,571,450 = Number no longer considered as unemployed any given month regardless if they dont return to an employed status.
Say, 50% return to work during unemployment immediately after unemployment benefits end
2,571,450 x 0.50 = 1,285,725 actually return to work of those newly not being counted as unemployed
Say 20 % return to work (which is probably the most realistic number given the industries that have laid-off workers)
2,571,450 x 0.20 = 514,290
Say 80 % return to work (which is unlikely)
2,571,450 x 0.80 = 2,057,160
Equals Total Number Unemployed:
Therefore, total number unemployed for the last two years:
(workforce x 0.10) + (24 months x (newly unemployed/month – number returning to work)) =
If 50% have returned to work after falling off unemployment the total number unemployed:
(154,287,000 x 0.10) + (24 x (2,571,450 – 1,285,725)) = 46,286,100 unemployed.
= 30% unemployed.
If 20% have returned to work after falling off unemployment the total number unemployed:
(154,287,000 x 0.10) + (24 x (2,571,450 – 514,290)) = 64,800,540 unemployed.
= 42% unemployed.
If 80% have returned to work after falling off unemployment the total number unemployed:
(154,287,000 x 0.10) + (24 x (2,571,450 – 2,057,160)) = 27,771,660 unemployed.
= 18% unemployed.
However, If 0.0% have returned to work after falling off unemployment or all become underemployed and could still be counted as unemployed, the total number unemployed:
(154,287,000 x 0.10) + (24 x (2,571,450 – 0)) = 77,143,500 unemployed.
= 50% unemployed.
In case you don’t know what I mean when speaking of the true unemployment numbers, when one receives unemployment compensation or applies for such anyhow, they are then counted as unemployed (unemployed illegal immigrants or employed undocumented workers never count as unemployed – btw, of course). However, if one does not become reemployed by the time any unemployment insurance compensation expires – typically six months or so, they are no longer counted as unemployed regardless if they remain unemployed albeit without any unemployment insurance benefits. After six months of not returning to the workforce, those workers are considered as people who are not interested in rejoining the workforce, or as the government labels them, “discouraged workers.”
Anyway, so we can see that the true number of unemployed is likely to be significantly larger than the reported numbers concerning unemployed U.S. workers.
AVT
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